{"id":1464,"date":"2011-03-17T23:35:35","date_gmt":"2011-03-17T18:05:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mohamediqbalp.wordpress.com\/2011\/03\/17\/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells\/"},"modified":"2011-03-17T23:35:35","modified_gmt":"2011-03-17T18:05:35","slug":"smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/venusimportexport.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/2011\/03\/17\/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Smaller, cheaper, faster: Does Moore&#8217;s law apply to solar cells?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"Apple-style-span\" style=\"border-collapse:separate;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;orphans:2;text-align:0;text-indent:0;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0;\"><span class=\"Apple-style-span\" style=\"color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:georgia, times, serif;font-size:14px;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"articleInfo\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:14px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 20px;padding:0;\"><span class=\"byline\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:14px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;white-space:normal;font-family:arial, sans-serif;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0;padding:0 5px 0 0;\">By<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp;<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/blog\/guest-blog\/index.cfm?author=2770\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:14px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(25,67,124);text-decoration:none;cursor:pointer;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0;padding:0;\">Ramez Naam<\/a>&nbsp;|<\/span><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"datestamp\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:14px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;white-space:nowrap;font-family:arial, sans-serif;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0;padding:0 5px 0 0;\">Mar 16, 2011 09:00 AM&nbsp;|<\/span><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"tinyCommentCount\" href=\"http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/blog\/post.cfm?id=smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-2011-03-15&amp;WT.mc_id=SA_DD_20110316#comments\" title=\"comments on this blog post\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:14px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:url('http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/assets\/img\/icon_comment_tiny.gif');background-attachment:initial;background-color:initial;color:rgb(34,34,34);text-decoration:none;cursor:pointer;font-family:arial, sans-serif;white-space:nowrap;background-position:0 2px;background-repeat:no-repeat no-repeat;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0;padding:0 5px 0 13px;\">19<\/a><\/p>\n<ul id=\"flairBar\" 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style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:12px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:url('http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/assets\/img\/flair\/email.gif');background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;display:block;float:left;height:auto;line-height:18px;color:rgb(34,34,34);cursor:pointer;background-position:0 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat no-repeat;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 11px 0 0;padding:0 0 0 14px;\">Email<\/span><\/li>\n<li id=\"printFlair\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:12px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;display:inline;font:normal normal normal 12px\/18px Prelude, arial, sans-serif;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0;padding:0;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/blog\/post.cfm?id=smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-2011-03-15&amp;print=true\" rel=\"nofollow\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:12px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:url('http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/assets\/img\/flair\/print.gif');background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(34,34,34);text-decoration:none;cursor:pointer;display:block;float:left;height:auto;line-height:18px;background-position:0 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat no-repeat;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 11px 0 0;padding:0 0 0 14px;\">Print<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"singleBlogPost\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:14px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0;padding:0;\">\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">The sun strikes every square meter of our planet with more than 1,360 watts of power. Half of that energy is absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected back into space. 700 watts of power, on average, reaches Earth\u2019s surface. Summed across the half of the Earth that the sun is shining on, that is 89 petawatts of power. By comparison, all of human civilization uses around 15 terrawatts of power, or one six-thousandth as much. In 14 and a half seconds, the sun provides as much energy to Earth as humanity uses in a day.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">The numbers are staggering and surprising. In 88 minutes, the sun provides 470 exajoules of energy, as much energy as humanity consumes in a year. In 112 hours \u2013 less than five days \u2013 it provides 36 zettajoules of energy \u2013 as much energy as is contained in all proven reserves of oil, coal, and natural gas on this planet.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">If humanity could capture one tenth of one percent of the solar energy striking the earth \u2013 one part in one thousand &#8211; we would have access to six times as much energy as we consume in all forms today, with almost no greenhouse gas emissions. At the current rate of energy consumption increase \u2013 about 1 percent per year \u2013 we will not be using that much energy for another 180 years.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">It\u2019s small wonder, then, that scientists and entrepreneurs alike are investing in solar energy technologies to capture some of the abundant power around us. Yet solar power is still a miniscule fraction of all power generation capacity on the planet. There is at most 30 gigawatts of solar generating capacity deployed today, or about 0.2 percent of all energy production. Up until now, while solar energy has been abundant, the systems to capture it have been expensive and inefficient.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">That is changing. Over the last 30 years, researchers have watched as the price of capturing solar energy has dropped exponentially. There\u2019s now frequent talk of a &#8220;Moore&#8217;s law&#8221; in solar energy. In computing,<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp;<\/span><span id=\"apture_prvw1\" class=\"aptureLink \" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;display:inline!important;float:none!important;border-top-left-radius:4px 4px;border-top-right-radius:4px 4px;border-bottom-right-radius:4px 4px;border-bottom-left-radius:4px 4px;cursor:pointer!important;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial!important;border-style:initial!important;border-width:0!important;margin:0!important;padding:0!important;\"><span class=\"aptureLinkIcon\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:url('http:\/\/cdn.apture.com\/media\/imgs\/link_icons.gif?v12');background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;display:inline!important;float:none!important;background-position:100% -1347px;background-repeat:no-repeat no-repeat!important;border-color:initial!important;border-style:initial!important;border-width:0!important;margin:0!important;padding:0 0 0 11px !important;\">&nbsp;<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Moore%27s%20law\" class=\"aptureLink snap_noshots\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(25,67,124);text-decoration:none;cursor:pointer;display:inline!important;float:none!important;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial!important;border-style:initial!important;border-width:0!important;margin:0!important;padding:0!important;\">Moore\u2019s law<\/a><\/span><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp;<\/span>dictates that the number of components that can be placed on a chip doubles every 18 months. More practically speaking, the amount of computing power you can buy for a dollar has roughly doubled every 18 months, for decades. That\u2019s the reason that the phone in your pocket has thousands of times as much memory and ten times as much processing power as a famed Cray 1 supercomputer, while weighing ounces compared to the Cray\u2019s 10,000 lb bulk, fitting in your pocket rather than a large room, and costing tens or hundreds of dollars rather than tens of millions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">If similar dynamics worked in solar power technology, then we would eventually have the solar equivalent of an iPhone \u2013 incredibly cheap, mass distributed energy technology that was many times more effective than the giant and centralized technologies it was born from.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">So is there such a phenomenon? The National Renewable Energy Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy has watched solar photovoltaic price trends since 1980. They\u2019ve seen the price per Watt of solar modules (not counting installation) drop from $22 dollars in 1980 down to under $3 today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/media\/inline\/blog\/Image\/naam-solar-moore_s-law-1.jpg\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;cursor:auto;display:block;max-width:550px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 10px 8px 0;padding:0;\" height=\"308\" width=\"448\" align=\"middle\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">Is this really an exponential curve? And is it continuing to drop at the same rate, or is it leveling off in recent years? To know if a process is exponential, we plot it on a log scale.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/media\/inline\/blog\/Image\/naam-solar-moore_s-law-2.jpg\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;cursor:auto;display:block;max-width:550px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 10px 8px 0;padding:0;\" height=\"314\" width=\"448\" align=\"middle\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">And indeed, it follows a nearly straight line on a log scale. Some years the price changes more than others. Averaged over 30 years, the trend is for an annual 7 percent reduction in the dollars per watt of solar photovoltaic cells. While in the earlier part of this decade prices flattened for a few years, the sharp decline in 2009 made up for that and put the price reduction back on track. Data from 2010 (not included above) shows at least a 30 percent further price reduction, putting solar prices ahead of this trend.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">If we look at this another way, in terms of the amount of power we can get for $100, we see a continual rise on a log scale.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/media\/inline\/blog\/Image\/naam-solar-moore_s-law-3.jpg\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;cursor:auto;display:block;max-width:550px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 10px 8px 0;padding:0;\" height=\"314\" width=\"448\" align=\"middle\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">What\u2019s driving these changes? There are two factors. First, solar cell manufacturers are learning \u2013 much as computer chip manufacturers keep learning \u2013 how to reduce the cost to fabricate solar.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">Second, the efficiency of solar cells \u2013 the fraction of the sun\u2019s energy that strikes them that they capture \u2013 is continually improving. In the lab, researchers have achieved solar efficiencies of as high as 41 percent, an unheard of efficiency 30 years ago. Inexpensive thin-film methods have achieved laboratory efficiencies as high as 20 percent, still twice as high as most of the solar systems in deployment today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/media\/inline\/blog\/Image\/naam-solar-moore_s-law-4.jpg\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;cursor:auto;display:block;max-width:550px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 10px 8px 0;padding:0;\" height=\"314\" width=\"448\" align=\"middle\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">What do these trends mean for the future? If the 7 percent decline in costs continues (and 2010 and 2011 both look likely to beat that number), then in 20 years the cost per watt of PV cells will be just over 50 cents.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/media\/inline\/blog\/Image\/naam-solar-moore_s-law-5.jpg\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;cursor:auto;display:block;max-width:550px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 10px 8px 0;padding:0;\" height=\"291\" width=\"448\" align=\"middle\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">Indications are that the projections above are actually too conservative. First Solar corporation has announced internal production costs (though not consumer prices) of 75 cents per watt, and expects to hit 50 cents per watt in production cost in 2016. If they hit their estimates, they\u2019ll be beating the trend above by a considerable margin.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">What does the continual reduction in solar price per watt mean for electricity prices and carbon emissions? Historically, the cost of PV modules (what we\u2019ve been using above) is about half the total installed cost of systems. The rest of the cost is installation.&nbsp; Fortunately, installation costs have also dropped at a similar pace to module costs. If we look at the price of electricity from solar systems in the U.S. and scale it for reductions in module cost, we get this:<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/media\/inline\/blog\/Image\/naam-solar-moore_s-law-6.jpg\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;cursor:auto;display:block;max-width:550px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 10px 8px 0;padding:0;\" height=\"299\" width=\"448\" align=\"middle\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">The cost of solar, in the average location in the U.S., will cross the current average retail electricity price of 12 cents per kilowatt hour in around 2020, or 9 years from now. In fact, given that retail electricity prices are currently rising by a few percent per year, prices will probably cross earlier, around 2018 for the country as a whole, and as early as 2015 for the sunniest parts of America.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">10 years later, in 2030, solar electricity is likely to cost<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp;<\/span><em>half<\/em><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp;<\/span>what coal electricity does today. Solar capacity is being built out at an exponential pace already. When the prices become so much more favorable than those of alternate energy sources, that pace will only accelerate.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">We should always be careful of extrapolating trends out, of course. Natural processes have limits. Phenomena that look exponential eventually level off or become linear at a certain point. Yet physicists and engineers in the solar world are optimistic about their roadmaps for the coming decade. The cheapest solar modules, not yet on the market, have manufacturing costs under $1 per watt, making them contenders \u2013 when they reach the market \u2013 for breaking the 12 cents per Kwh mark.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">The exponential trend in solar watts per dollar has been going on for at least 31 years now. If it continues for another 8-10, which looks extremely likely, we\u2019ll have a power source which is as cheap as coal for electricity, with virtually no carbon emissions. If it continues for 20 years, which is also well within the realm of scientific and technical possibility, then we\u2019ll have a green power source which is<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp;<\/span><em>half<\/em><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp;<\/span>the price of coal for electricity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\">That\u2019s good news for the world.<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\"><strong>Sources and Further Reading:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/iea.org\/publications\/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1199\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(25,67,124);text-decoration:none;cursor:pointer;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0;padding:0;\">Key World Energy Statistics 2010<\/a>, International Energy Agency,<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/eetd.lbl.gov\/ea\/ems\/reports\/lbnl-4121e.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(25,67,124);text-decoration:none;cursor:pointer;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0;padding:0;\">Tracking the Sun III: The Installed Cost of Photovoltaics in the U.S. from 1998-2009<\/a>, Barbose, G., N. Darghouth, R. Wiser., LBNL-4121E, December 2010,<\/p>\n<p style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;line-height:24px;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0 0 25px;padding:0;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/analysis\/pdfs\/46025.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\" style=\"outline-width:0;outline-style:initial;outline-color:initial;font-size:16px;vertical-align:baseline;background-image:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(25,67,124);text-decoration:none;cursor:pointer;background-position:initial initial;background-repeat:initial initial;border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0;margin:0;padding:0;\">2008 Solar Technologies Market Report: January 2010<\/a>, (2010). 131 pp. NREL Report TP-6A2-46025; DOE\/GO-102010-2867,<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By&nbsp;Ramez Naam&nbsp;|&nbsp;Mar 16, 2011 09:00 AM&nbsp;|&nbsp;19 Share Email Print The sun strikes every square meter of our planet with more than 1,360 watts of power. Half of that energy is absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected back into space. 700 watts of power, on average, reaches Earth\u2019s surface. Summed across the half of the Earth&hellip; <br \/> <a class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/venusimportexport.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/2011\/03\/17\/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells-2\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/venusimportexport.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/venusimportexport.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/venusimportexport.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/venusimportexport.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/venusimportexport.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/venusimportexport.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1464\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/venusimportexport.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/venusimportexport.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/venusimportexport.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}